Betting Against Joe Mixon’s Props Versus the Bills

• The best Joe Mixon prop bets this weekend are on the under for his rushing props at Bovada.
• Receptions and receiving yards are likely the only two Joe Mixon props that should be bet over their current total.

BUFFALO, N.Y. - Since coming back from injury back in Week 14, Joe Mixon has seen both his rushing production and workload decrease dramatically.

Betting on the under for nearly all of Joe Mixon's rushing prop bets versus the Buffalo Bills on Sunday may be a wise strategy as a result of that shift.

Joe Mixon Rushing Props vs the Bills

• Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop: 46.5 Yards (Over -115; Under -115)
• Joe Mixon Rushing Attempts Prop: 13.5 Attempts (Over EVEN; Under -130)

Online gambling sites have clearly downgraded many of Joe Mixon's props, especially when considering how great he was when he made the Pro Bowl last season.

Mixon has gone from averaging 75.3 rushing yards per game to 58.3 this season, with that decline evident in many other categories as well.

Breaking down Mixon's season before and after his injury (Week 14) shows a similar decline in his rushing ability as the season has gone along.

• Joe Mixon before Week 14: 16.8 Rushing attempts per game/ 65.0 Yards per game/3.95 Yards per Carry
• Joe Mixon after Week 14: 12.6 Rushing attempts per game/49.6 Yards per game/3.77 Yards per Carry

While Mixon has still averaged more rushing yards than his prop, his average is largely inflated by his performance against the Browns after nearly a month off:

• Week 14 vs CLE: 14 Attempts/96 Rushing Yards/6.86 YPC
• Week 15 vs TAM: 11 Attempts/21 Rushing Yards/1.91 YPC
• Week 16 vs NWE: 16 Attempts/65 Rushing Yards/4.06 YPC
• Week 18 vs BAL: 11 Attempts/27 Rushing Yards/2.45 YPC
• Week 19 vs BAL: 11 Attempts/39 Rushing Yards/3.55 YPC

Since that outburst versus Cleveland, Joe Mixon has averaged 12.25 carries for 38 yards per game on 2.99 yards per carry.

Betting the under on all of his rushing yard props at NFL gambling sites is an excellent bet based on those recent statistics.

Joe Mixon Receiving Props vs the Bills

Joe Mixon receiving prop bets are likely a much better over bet than his rushing yards at online gambling sites:

• Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop: 24.5 Yards (Over -115; Under -115)
• Joe Mixon Receptions Prop: 3.5 Catches (Over -125; Under -105)
• Joe Mixon Total Yards Prop: 75.5 Yards (Over -115; Under -115)

Mixon has shown much less of a decline in the passing game than while running the ball.

His receiving statistics over the past four games suggest that he will go over his prop bets at Bovada:

• Week 15 vs TAM: 5 Receptions for 33 Yards
• Week 16 vs NWE: 7 Receptions for 43 Yards
• Week 18 vs BAL: 5 Receptions for 41 Yards
• Week 19 vs BAL: 3 Receptions for 17 Yards

From Weeks 15 through 18 Mixon topped his current receiving props, although he still only topped the 75.5 total yards prop once over that span.

Betting on the over for Joe Mixon receiving yards and catches is likely the best bet for the Oklahoma product, with his rushing production too low to warrant betting the over on his carries, rushing yards, or total yards.