- Brendan Fraser has become the favorite to win best actor in the 2023 Academy Awards at -180 odds for his role as Charlie in The Whale.
- Austin Butler is second in odds at +130 for his portrayal of Elvis Presley in Elvis.
- Butler took home the BAFTA Award for Best Actor, but also lost to Brendan Fraser in the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture.
LOS ANGELES, Calif. – The 95th Academy Awards show begins on Sunday with Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler as the two most favored to win the Oscar for Best Actor. Both hold Academy Awards odds shorter than +1200 for the category.
Both Fraser and Butler have won the SAG and BAFTA best actor awards, respectively. This places them neck-and-neck, though Fraser has slowly climbed into the lead on online gambling sites.
Odds to Win Best Actor
- Brendan Fraser - The Whale -180
- Austin Butler – Elvis +130
- Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin +1200
- Paul Mescal – Aftersun +4500
- Bill Nighy – Living +6000
Fraser’s Momentous Return to the Spotlight
Fraser has had a tumultuous time through his acting career in Hollywood, but has nevertheless stormed back with an incredible performance in The Whale. This narrative surrounding the return of a storied and recognizable actor like Fraser may be one of the biggest reasons why he is favored.
The Whale marks the first lead role for Fraser since Breakout in 2013. After being out of the spotlight for much of the 2010’s and multiple TV show roles, Fraser came back and received critical acclaim, with some reports saying there was a five minute standing ovation at the London Film Festival.
After The Whale was released in December of 2022, it was an instant hit, selling out all six movie theaters that it was played in during the limited release.
The last movie directed by Darren Aronofsky that similarly smashed at the box office was 2010’s Black Swan which Natalie Portman won the Oscar for Best Actress in as the lead role. This info certainly bodes well for Fraser and his first Academy Award nomination.
The Case for Austin Butler
Butler comes into the week as the +130 underdog on entertainment gambling sites for his role in Elvis, and won the BAFTA award for Best Actor earlier this year.
By far the biggest boon for Butler is the praise that Elvis received as a movie when compared to The Whale. This is major because each of the last 10 Best Actor winners were in movies nominated for Best Picture, which The Whale was not.
It is relatively rare that the BAFTA and SAG awards disagree on Best Actor and there is no clear trend on which one tends to be correct. In the last five disagreements, the SAG awards were accurate in three years while the BAFTA awards agreed with two of the Academy Award winners.
Thus, at +130 odds, Austin Butler does have credence to the claim of Best Actor, especially because of the critical success of Elvis while The Whale underperformed by comparison. This makes him a value pick, but given the story surrounding Fraser’s return to the big screen, it may be tough for Butler to beat out the former George Of The Jungle star.